Climate Change and Capitol Reef

 
Visitors in ponchos in front of an RV as a flash flood roars across a collapsed road in front of them
A desert vacation can take a quick turn when a flash flood strikes. Natural disasters are nothing new. But as climate change makes extreme weather more unpredictable and severe, the strain on recreation and conservation is increasing.

NPS, 1985

 
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. …Since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas.” (United Nations 2023)

Climate change, driven by human action, is affecting the entire planet in a manner that has never occurred before. The causes and effects of climate change vary between different places and different groups of people. Negative effects will continue to emerge; without rapid, intense reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, these effects will get worse over time. (United Nations 2023; USGCRP 2023)

HOW is climate change affecting Capitol Reef? WHY is it happening? And WHAT can we do about it?
 
Flash flood, Capitol Reef National Park, 2015.

I want to be present to the times we are living in — not in fear, but in awe followed by conscious actions that can alleviate the pain we are experiencing, not just for our species, but all life on Earth. We are witnesses to cataclysmic change.

—Terry Tempest Williams
 

 

HOW is the park affected?

The drop-down tabs below explore ways climate change is affecting Capitol Reef.

 
a bar chart comparing historical versus future scenario drought conditions at Capitol Reef
Average drought metrics for Capitol Reef.

Climate Change Response Program 2024

Drought metrics for CARE, historically (1979-2012) and under each climate future scenario (Warm Wet and Hot Dry). LEFT: Average drought duration (years). Droughts will last much longer in the Hot Dry model. MIDDLE: Average drought return interval (years), indicating the expected amount of time between droughts. There will be less time between droughts under either climate future scenario. RIGHT: Average drought severity. Drought severity will increase drastically in the Hot Dry model.
 

WHY is it happening?

Fossil fuels

The foremost cause of climate change is the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). These include carbon dioxide and methane (IPCC 2023). GHGs trap heat from the sun’s radiation. More GHGs leads to more heat in the atmosphere.

Humans emit GHGs by burning fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. We use fossil fuels for transportation; energy generation; industry; and construction. Agriculture and natural habitats loss (e.g. rainforests and tundra) also release GHGs. Wealthy countries and individuals emit far more GHGs than others (Khalfan et al. 2023; Guivarch, Taconet, and Méjean 2021). But poorer countries and vulnerable communities suffer more from the effects of climate change (Khalfan et al. 2023; Diffenbaugh and Burke 2019).

Biodiversity loss

Biodiversity is the amount of variation among the living things in a landscape. Habitats with high biodiversity can store more carbon, adapt to change, regulate disease, provide new technologies, and offer benefits to human well-being (Buttke, Allen, and Higgins 2014).

The loss of biodiversity is both a cause and effect of climate change. Such losses are caused by agriculture (farming crops, ranching animals, fishing); resource extraction (logging, mining); and infrastructure development (buildings, roads). These practices release greenhouse gases; remove native habitat; reduce soil health; disturb water and nutrient cycles; spread disease; and make ecosystems less adaptable (W.H.O. 2015).


 
This graph compares historical vegetation type coverage in Capitol Reef to predictions for vegetation coverage between 2040 and 2069, based on a higher fossil fuel emissions model.
This graph compares historical vegetation types in Capitol Reef to predicted vegetation types in Capitol Reef between 2040 and 2069 based on a higher emissions model.

Climate Toolbox, UC Merced Climatology Lab

WHAT can we do about it?

Adaptations at Capitol Reef

Applying the RAD Framework to Fracturing Ecosystems

Climate Toolbox – Future Vegetation

Between 1971 and 2000, Capitol Reef had five major vegetation types. If emissions continue at their current pace, by 2040, it is predicted that Capitol Reef will lose two of its vegetation types: temperate grassland and temperate shrubland. The park’s landscape has already changed drastically since the introduction of cattle grazing. In the Cathedral Valley district, poor soil conditions and an increase in invasive species—which outcompete native plants—are direct consequences of grazing. To manage grazing impacts and slow the effects of climate change, park scientists are using the Resist, Accept, Direct (RAD) framework. In areas where fragile endemic species are present, the approach is to RESIST change by removing invasive species, providing suitable habitat for the endemics. In areas where native species are thriving and the soil is healthy, park managers can ACCEPT current conditions—for now. The park may also have to accept conditions when it does not have sufficient resources to conduct restoration efforts. Finally, the park DIRECTS change in an area of low vegetation in Cathedral Valley by digging small pits that aid growth by allowing seeds and moisture to accumulate. Continued vegetation shifts are unavoidable, so Capitol Reef is exercising the RAD framework now to get used to tackling the impacts of climate change. (More information at Thomas 2024.)

Equipping Orchards with Hardier Fruits

Climate Toolbox – Climate Analogs (how climate here will compare with climate elsewhere)

If fossil fuel emissions continue apace, the average number of freeze days at Capitol Reef each year is expected to drop dramatically. This will threaten not only the biodiversity of Capitol Reef's native habitats, but also its historic orchards. The fruits grown here need a long winter dormancy to properly bloom in spring; a mid-winter warm spell (or late-season frost) can destroy a crop. So, how is Capitol Reef coping? The park continues to plant heirloom fruit varieties that might otherwise disappear. This isn’t to say all heirloom varieties are suited to the changing climate—in many cases, they are not. But by maintaining a diverse roster, the park gives itself more opportunities to discover that certain cultivars are adaptable and resistant to heat and drought. Orchard managers are also actively researching, importing, and testing varieties specifically bred to bear desert durability. Such actions increase the likelihood that the effects of climate change don’t completely wipe out our foodways.

 
Map showing Capitol Reef with a similar amount of freeze days to the Midwest and New England Map showing Capitol Reef with a similar amount of freeze days to the Midwest and New England

Left image
This side shows places in the US that historically and currently have a similar climate to Capitol Reef, based on the average number of freeze days per year.
Credit: Climate Toolbox, UC Merced Climatology Lab

Right image
This side shows places in the US that will have a similar climate to Capitol Reef under a predicted model of increasing fossil fuel emissions, based on the average number of freeze days per year.
Credit: Climate Toolbox, UC Merced Climatology Lab

This map shows places across the US that have similar climates to Capitol Reef, currently (left) and under a predicted climate model (right). The tool calls these "climate analogs." It helps explain the question, "What will Capitol Reef look like in the future?" The maps show similar climates in blue colors and less similar climates in light green, yellow, or white colors. Currently, Capitol Reef has freeze days similar to areas across the central Great Plains and Midwest. In the future, Capitol Reef will be much more similar to the hot, muggy South and southern East Coast.

 

 
Venn diagram with three circles: what brings you joy, what are you good at, what work needs doing. At center is What you should do.
The Climate Action Venn Diagram helps us find our own climate superpower.

Dr. Ayana Elizabeth Johnson

What YOU Can Do: Pruning the Leaves

Individual action is important—somewhat. Actions that can reduce our “carbon footprints” include avoiding air travel, eating less meat, buying products used instead of new, planting trees, and so on. Small actions may add up to real benefits for the planet. Many of these choices can improve our wellbeing, save money, and inspire others, too.

Communicate: Just talk about it!

Something we can all do to address climate change: talk about it! We grow to care about the things people around us care about. Communicating about climate change normalizes the issue, making it easier to approach. Don’t be afraid to raise the issue of climate impacts in casual conversations—for example, when planning a vacation or writing a shopping list. One voice empowers another, then another, and another, and so on. The whispers add up to a roar that businesses and policymakers can hear.

Climate Action Venn diagram: Find your niche!

What's the best thing YOU can do to fight climate change? There’s no one answer, as each of us has our own power, skills, and capacity. That’s why Dr. Ayana Elizabeth Johnson, a climate activist and marine biologist, developed the Climate Action Venn Diagram. You can make a difference by finding the intersection between what needs doing, what you are good at, and what bring you joy.

What WE Can Do: Cutting at the Roots

Individual action alone is not enough! A big-picture problem requires big-picture solutions. We often discuss ways to tackle climate change’s symptoms—for example, sea level rise or animal extinctions. But to truly succeed, we need to tackle its causes: fossil fuel use, material overconsumption, habitat loss, and so on. We must demand these changes at the country, company, and community levels.

UN Sectoral Solution

Climate experts have identified the sectors that emit the most carbon emissions, and how to reduce pollution in each sector. From this, the United Nations (UN) has made a roadmap of necessary climate goals it calls the Sectoral Solution. While this roadmap focuses on global scales of governments, cities, and corporations, we can find strategies that get at the roots of the issue on a smaller scale.
How can we make our local communities combat climate change?
  • Implement a food rescue or composting program in your neighborhood to reduce food waste.
  • Use and advocate for public transit and biking infrastructure projects over private vehicle infrastructure. If you have the means, prioritize hybrid or electric vehicles over gasoline.
  • Support policies of nature restoration and urban greening.
  • Volunteer with local organizations that care for parks, wetlands, forests, and other green spaces.
  • Recommend renewable energy projects (e.g. solar panels, heat pumps) in your home, neighborhood, city, park, or state. If you have the means, prioritize energy-efficient homes.
  • Pursue deconstruction instead of demolition, whether it’s a home craft project or city infrastructure upgrade.

Native knowledge

Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) from indigenous cultures can light the way to more whole, healthy, and resilient societies. The essential relationships between people and natural resources are commonly centered in TEK. The beliefs, lifestyles, and technologies that tribes have been developing over millennia may guide us toward climate solutions.

The worldviews of many (though not necessarily all) indigenous cultures in North America believe in balance between people and planet. We are nurtured by nature; we must be its mindful stewards in return. It is possible for humans to utilize and improve natural resources at the same time. Modern societies can learn from such ideas to build a happy, harmonious future on Earth. Information on these worldviews has been given to us by indigenous voices:
  • “It is our obligation, day by day, to conduct ourselves in a manner that shows our respect for the land and all it contains. It is our obligation, day by day, to protect the plants and animals that need our help” (The Hopi Tribe 2024).
  • "The Nuche only took what they required, never over harvesting game or wild plants. These principles were closely adhered to in order for the people to survive. …The Ute people lived in harmony with their environment. …The Utes believed that they didn’t own the land, but that the land owned them” (Southern Ute Indian Tribe 2019).
  • “Native Americans, Alaska Natives, and other Indigenous peoples have a long tradition of living sustainably with the natural world by understanding the importance of preserving natural resources and respecting the interdependence of all living things” (NARF 2023).
Indigenous food programs seek to revitalize native foodways and build a more sustainable desert society. Whereas Western industrial farming alters the environment to fit itself, the techniques of ancestral farming are adapted to the native environment. Regenerative agriculture combats climate change: cultivating heritage crops can improve biodiversity, soil health, and carbon emissions (Nabhan 2010). Plus, it provides a nutritious diet and fosters community. One regional organization is Utah Diné Bikéyah, a nonprofit dedicated to supporting Indigenous communities in the Bears Ears region (southeastern Utah). Their Traditional Food Program aims to collect, study, preserve, and reintroduce native plants (Harford 2022).

Pioneer spirit of community

How did the Latter-day Saint settlers who arrived here in the 1890s survive in a harsh environment that was so foreign to them? Certainly, they were aided by their Western technology and LDS Church’s network. But they also lived by a culture of collaboration and mutual aid: “A land system was established based on the principle that the welfare of the social group transcended that of the individual. The methods employed to allot land and water represented a high degree of cooperation, rare among most other frontier settlements” (Gilbert and McCoy 1997).

This communal way of life can be a model for today. What skills could you and your neighbors offer each other? We can create local support networks to divide and conquer climate challenges. Society can become more resilient to climate change if we accept that “resilience is rooted in our abilities to work together, mobilize resources, and take care of one another” (Loh, Estrella-Luna, and Shor 2023).
 

Climate change research at CARE

 
 

Climate change around Utah

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    Last updated: March 13, 2025

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