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“Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. …Since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas.” (United Nations 2023) Climate change, driven by human action, is affecting the entire planet in a manner that has never occurred before. The causes and effects of climate change vary between different places and different groups of people. Negative effects will continue to emerge; without rapid, intense reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, these effects will get worse over time. (United Nations 2023; USGCRP 2023) HOW is climate change affecting Capitol Reef? WHY is it happening? And WHAT can we do about it? ![]()
HOW is the park affected?The drop-down tabs below explore ways climate change is affecting Capitol Reef. In the southwestern United States, dry places have been getting drier since the turn of the century. This is often described as a “megadrought.” This word suggests the conditions are temporary, like a single weather event. But this increase in aridity is more likely a permanent shift in the climate—not a drought, but rather aridification. Human-caused global warming drives aridification (USDA).
Climate change is altering the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including flash floods, wildfires, and heat waves. Flash floods are dramatic natural disasters that often impact Capitol Reef. A flash flood in August 2023 saw the Fremont River break its banks to temporarily transform the Fruita Campground into a pond. In June 2022, a flood carried three cars down Grand Wash and two down Capitol Gorge. Studies show that Utah can expect more intense flash floods due to climate change. Floods cause risks to visitor safety, infrastructure, natural habitats, and local economies. This landscape is adapted to flooding, but human alteration of watersheds and unpredictable weather can make these disasters too much to handle (Khatri and Konag 2020).
Within one park, there are many different plant communities. Certain species grow together where their preferred soil, elevation, and moisture conditions exist. Diverse, healthy habitats mean more animal species and a more interesting, resilient landscape. Some plant communities are more sensitive to climate change than others. Communities good at handling drought may fare better in a drier climate; these include blackbrush scrub and disturbed areas where invasives thrive. Communities vulnerable to drought will suffer in a drier climate; these include Douglas-fir and bristlecone pine (Thoma, D.P. 2023).
Invasive species are those that end up in a new environment, establish themselves, and damage the native ecosystem. In Capitol Reef, common invasive species include tumbleweed (Russian thistle, Salsola sp.), cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), and tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis). There are at least 54 invasive noxious weeds across Utah (BLM).
Climate change is increasing the number of invasive species around the globe. Rising temperatures, a changing atmosphere, and natural disasters all disturb habitats. They interrupt the growing cycles of plants; make food scarce for animals; and damage soil health. A disturbed habitat is prime real estate for invasive species. The spread of invasives is also accelerated by long-distance tourism and global trade (Cho 2024). Habitat loss and invasive species (caused by climate change) in turn threaten the survival of native desert species. There are around eight threatened or endangered species found in the park, including the Mexican spotted owl and the bighorn sheep. Large animals are easier to study and sympathize with, but even the loss of a single flower or insect may ripple across the ecosystem.
The orchards in Fruita maintain the settler heritage of southern Utah. They include heirloom fruits that do not grow anywhere else. Some heirloom varieties may be less resistant to drought and disease. Warmer temperatures may cause trees to bloom too soon, when their pollinators aren't around yet, which reduces harvests. Climate change threatens this bountiful, interactive, and historical treasure.
Research shows that weather conditions can influence trends in park visitation. For example, winter visitation is far lower at Capitol Reef and other parks with cold winters. Visitation also lowers around the peaks of summer's heat. As summers get hotter, visitation may decrease in the peak and shoulder seasons, and increase in the low season (winter). This will disrupt traditional tourism patterns and local businesses (Fisichelli et al. 2015).
In 2024, the National Park Service’s Climate Change Response Program released climate futures summaries for every NPS unit. Analyzing 40 different future climate models, Capitol Reef is expected to have one of two climate futures by 2050: warm wet or hot dry. Both will be warmer than Capitol Reef’s historical climate. The projected warm wet future will be, relatively speaking, only slightly warmer than today’s baseline temperatures (+4.2 degrees Fahrenheit). On the other hand, the hot dry future will be significantly warmer than average (+6.2 degrees Fahrenheit). Precipitation is expected to vary significantly from year to year, though generally speaking, the warm wet future model shows higher levels of precipitation than today’s baseline, and the hot dry future model shows lower levels of precipitation. The implications for Capitol Reef under both models are extreme. Despite the expectation of increased precipitation under a warm wet climate, drought is expected to become increasingly severe under both future climate models, increasing fire risk and plant stress. Both climate models also predict that Capitol Reef will experience an increasing number of days with temperatures exceeding 94.2 degrees Fahrenheit (the historical 99th percentile of temperatures). Extreme temperatures not only affect plants, animals, and humans, but can also compromise infrastructure. Looking to the future, park managers must consider both climate possibilities and take action to mitigate the impacts of either climate future where possible.
![]() Climate Change Response Program 2024 WHY is it happening?Fossil fuelsThe foremost cause of climate change is the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). These include carbon dioxide and methane (IPCC 2023). GHGs trap heat from the sun’s radiation. More GHGs leads to more heat in the atmosphere. Biodiversity lossBiodiversity is the amount of variation among the living things in a landscape. Habitats with high biodiversity can store more carbon, adapt to change, regulate disease, provide new technologies, and offer benefits to human well-being (Buttke, Allen, and Higgins 2014). ![]() Climate Toolbox, UC Merced Climatology Lab WHAT can we do about it?Adaptations at Capitol ReefApplying the RAD Framework to Fracturing EcosystemsClimate Toolbox – Future Vegetation Equipping Orchards with Hardier FruitsClimate Toolbox – Climate Analogs (how climate here will compare with climate elsewhere) ![]() ![]()
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![]() Dr. Ayana Elizabeth Johnson What YOU Can Do: Pruning the LeavesIndividual action is important—somewhat. Actions that can reduce our “carbon footprints” include avoiding air travel, eating less meat, buying products used instead of new, planting trees, and so on. Small actions may add up to real benefits for the planet. Many of these choices can improve our wellbeing, save money, and inspire others, too.Communicate: Just talk about it!Something we can all do to address climate change: talk about it! We grow to care about the things people around us care about. Communicating about climate change normalizes the issue, making it easier to approach. Don’t be afraid to raise the issue of climate impacts in casual conversations—for example, when planning a vacation or writing a shopping list. One voice empowers another, then another, and another, and so on. The whispers add up to a roar that businesses and policymakers can hear.Climate Action Venn diagram: Find your niche!What's the best thing YOU can do to fight climate change? There’s no one answer, as each of us has our own power, skills, and capacity. That’s why Dr. Ayana Elizabeth Johnson, a climate activist and marine biologist, developed the Climate Action Venn Diagram. You can make a difference by finding the intersection between what needs doing, what you are good at, and what bring you joy.What WE Can Do: Cutting at the RootsIndividual action alone is not enough! A big-picture problem requires big-picture solutions. We often discuss ways to tackle climate change’s symptoms—for example, sea level rise or animal extinctions. But to truly succeed, we need to tackle its causes: fossil fuel use, material overconsumption, habitat loss, and so on. We must demand these changes at the country, company, and community levels.UN Sectoral SolutionClimate experts have identified the sectors that emit the most carbon emissions, and how to reduce pollution in each sector. From this, the United Nations (UN) has made a roadmap of necessary climate goals it calls the Sectoral Solution. While this roadmap focuses on global scales of governments, cities, and corporations, we can find strategies that get at the roots of the issue on a smaller scale.How can we make our local communities combat climate change?
Native knowledgeTraditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) from indigenous cultures can light the way to more whole, healthy, and resilient societies. The essential relationships between people and natural resources are commonly centered in TEK. The beliefs, lifestyles, and technologies that tribes have been developing over millennia may guide us toward climate solutions.The worldviews of many (though not necessarily all) indigenous cultures in North America believe in balance between people and planet. We are nurtured by nature; we must be its mindful stewards in return. It is possible for humans to utilize and improve natural resources at the same time. Modern societies can learn from such ideas to build a happy, harmonious future on Earth. Information on these worldviews has been given to us by indigenous voices:
Pioneer spirit of communityHow did the Latter-day Saint settlers who arrived here in the 1890s survive in a harsh environment that was so foreign to them? Certainly, they were aided by their Western technology and LDS Church’s network. But they also lived by a culture of collaboration and mutual aid: “A land system was established based on the principle that the welfare of the social group transcended that of the individual. The methods employed to allot land and water represented a high degree of cooperation, rare among most other frontier settlements” (Gilbert and McCoy 1997).This communal way of life can be a model for today. What skills could you and your neighbors offer each other? We can create local support networks to divide and conquer climate challenges. Society can become more resilient to climate change if we accept that “resilience is rooted in our abilities to work together, mobilize resources, and take care of one another” (Loh, Estrella-Luna, and Shor 2023). Climate change research at CARE
Standing Apart, Fighting TogetherThe NPS consists of over 430 units. Each park has their own stories and priorities. But they all follow the missions of preservation and conservation, and they are all affected by climate change. If each park were left alone to its own battle, we would make much less progress. That’s why the NPS unites to fight together, connecting on common problems and sharing the tools we create nationwide. From the smallest memorial to the biggest preserve, we are all in this together. Climate change around Utah BLM. “Programs: Weeds and Invasives: BLM Control Strategies: Utah: Bureau of Land Management.” Utah | Bureau of Land Management. Accessed November 10, 2024. https://www.blm.gov/programs/weeds-and-invasives/blm-control-strategies/utah.
Buttke, D., D. Allen, and C. Higgins. 2014. Benefits of biodiversity to human health and well-being. Park Science 31(1). https://www.nps.gov/articles/parksciencev31-n1_buttke_etal-htm.htm. Cho, Renée. “How Climate Change Drives the Spread of Invasive Plants.” State of the Planet, March 12, 2024. https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2024/03/12/how-climate-change-drives-the-spread-of-invasive-plants/. Diffenbaugh, Noah S., and Marshall Burke. “Global Warming Has Increased Global Economic Inequality.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, no. 20 (April 22, 2019): 9808–13. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1816020116. Fisichelli, Nicholas A., Gregor W. Schuurman, William B. Monahan, and Pamela S. Ziesler. “Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm up or Overheat?” PLOS ONE 10, no. 6 (June 17, 2015). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0128226. Fuller, Kirsten. 2022. The Influence of Visitors, Habitat, and Methodology on Mexican Spotted Owl (Strik Occidentalis Lucida) Occupancy and Detection in a Remote Canyon Environment. MSc diss., Boise State University. https://doi.org/10.18122/td.2020.boisestate Gilbert, Cathy, and Kathleen McKoy. 1997. “Cultural Landscape Report: Fruita Rural Historic District, Capitol Reef National Park.” Denver, CO: National Park Service. Graves, Donna and Elizabeth Villano with Cassie Anderson. 2024. “History & Hope for Climate Action: An Interpretive Toolkit.” National Park Service, Climate Change Response Program, Fort Collins, Colorado. Guivarch, Céline, Nicolas Taconet, and Aurélie Méjean. 2021. “Linking Climate and Inequality.” International Monetary Fund. September 2021. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2021/09/climate-change-and-inequality-guivarch-mejean-taconet Harford, Ali. 2022. “Regrowth in the Navajo Nation: Indigenous Traditional Foods Program Enters a New Era.” Moab Sun News. June 17, 2022. https://moabsunnews.com/2022/06/17/regrowth-in-the-navajo-nation-indigenous-traditional-foods-program-enters-a-new-era/ The Hopi Tribe. 2024. “Wildlife & Ecosystems Management Program.” The Hopi Tribe. 2024. https://www.hopi-nsn.gov/tribal-services/department-natural-resources-2/wildlife-ecosystems/ IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 184 pp., doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647. Khalfan, A., Nilsson Lewis, A., Aguilar, C., Persson, J., Lawson, M., Dabi, N., Jayoussi, S. and Acharya, S., 2023. Climate Equality: A Planet for the 99%. Oxford, UK: Oxfam International. https://doi.org/10.21201/2023.000001 Khatri, Krishna, and Courtenay Strong. 2020. Climate Change, Water Resources, and Potential Adaptation Strategies in Utah. Salt Lake City, UT: Utah Department of Natural Resources. https://water.utah.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Final-Report_ClimateChangeUtah_May_2020.pdf Loh, Penn, Neenah Estrella-Luna, and Katherine Shor. 2023. “Pandemic Response and Mutual Aid as Climate Resilience: Learning from Community Responses in the Boston Area.” Journal of Climate Resilience & Climate Justice 1 (September): 8–19. https://doi.org/10.1162/crcj_a_00006 Nabhan, Gary Paul. 2010. Heritage Farming in the Southwest. Western National Parks Association. Native American Rights Fund. 2024. “NARF Annual Report 2023.” Boulder, CO. https://narf.org/about-us/annual-reports/ Southern Ute Indian Tribe. 2019. “History.” Southern Ute Indian Tribe. 2019. https://www.southernute-nsn.gov/history Thoma, David. 2023. “Landscape phenology, vegetation condition, and relations with climate at Capitol Reef National Park, 2000–2019.” Edited by Alice Wondrak Biel. Natural Resource Report NPS/NCPN/NRR— 2023/2498. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado. https://doi.org/10.36967/2297289 United Nations. n.d. “What Is Climate Change?” United Nations. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/what-is-climate-change. USDA. “Megadrought and Aridification in the Southwest United States.” n.d. USDA Climate Hubs. https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/southwest/topic/megadrought-and-aridification-southwest-united-states. USGCRP, 2023: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023. Williams, Terry T. 2024. “At My Utah Home, I Stand in the Terrible Beauty of Climate Chaos.” The Salt Lake Tribune, July 13, 2024. https://www.sltrib.com/opinion/commentary/2024/07/14/terry-tempest-williams-my-utah/ World Health Organization, and Convention on Biological Diversity. 2015. Connecting Global Priorities: Biodiversity and Human Health: A State of Knowledge Review. Geneva, Switzerland: WHO Press. |
Last updated: March 13, 2025