Climate Change

A hiker overlooks numerous multicolored rock layers from different parts of geologic time.
Rocks deposited from ancient oceans, deserts, and floodplains are all visible at Dinosaur National Monument. They tell the story of how the climate and landscape changed slowly over millions of years.

NPS Photo

Climate change has affected the land now known as Dinosaur National Monument for millions of years. Evidence of it can be seen in the park's geology. Dinosaur's rock layers show how both fast and slow climate change have affected this landscape in the past. Changes in today's ecosystems reveal how modern climate change is different, and how it's impacting the park today. Use this page to get a quick refresher on the forces that influence global climate, learn about climate change through the ages, explore how modern climate change is different, and discover how it's impacting Dinosaur.
 
 

Forces that Influence Global Climate

The rates and degrees by which the global climate changes can be influenced by many different factors. Some of them, like tectonic plate movement, affect the climate very slowly. Others, like an asteroid strike, can change the climate rather quickly. Use the drop-down boxes below for a quick refresher on some of the forces that regularly influence climate change.
 

 

Climate Change Through the Ages

Geology (the study of rocks) can give us amazing insight into what the global climate was like at different times in the past. Usually, climate change happened very slowly, which gave living species enough time to adapt to changes as they were occurring. However, geology and the fossil record also show that there have been times in the past when global climate changed very quickly — too quickly for most species to adjust. Click the drop-down boxes to view to some common questions we get here at Dinosaur National Monument, and discover the role climate change has played through time.
 

 

Modern Climate Change

When we look at Earth's climate through the lens of geologic time, it's clear that climate change happens. Geology and the fossil record provide plenty of proof that climate change happened very slowly most of the time, but there were occasions where the rate of change suddenly sped up. If there's one thing the fossil record reveals about ancient climate change — whether it got hotter, colder, wetter, or drier — it's that mass extinctions happened when the climate changed faster than organisms could adapt. Today, the vast majority of climate scientists agree that average global temperatures are changing much faster than usual, and that the evidence for human activities being the main driver of this change is too substantial to ignore. Perhaps its no coincidence that Earth appears to be experiencing a modern mass extinction event, dubbed the "Anthropocene Extinction." Numerous studies have revealed that bird, amphibian, and insect species are each declining by over 40% worldwide as a result of human activities, including human-caused climate change.
 
A screenshot of the cover of DINO's Climate Futures Report.
Click to view the 2024 Climate Futures Report for Dinosaur National Monument.

NPS Climate Change Response Program

What's the Park Service Doing?

In 2024, the National Park Service (NPS) Climate Change Response Program compiled decades of park-specific climate data to examine how recent climate trends could impact parks in the future. The result of this research was the Climate Futures Summaries. Planning for more than one plausible climate scenario puts park administrators in the best postion to avoid surprises and costly mistakes as a result of climate change. The NPS Climate Change Response Program recognizes that it's impossible to precisely predict future greenhouse gas emissions and how our climate will respond to them. To account for these unknowns, the Climate Futures Summaries examine historic climate trends to offer several possible climate futures for each park.

Takeaways from Dinosaur's Climate Futures Summary:

  • At Dinosaur National Monument, average annual temperatures increased at a rate of 3.6 °F per century from 1895-2022. Since the acceleration of anthropogenic (human-caused) climate changes around 1970, temperatures increased at a rate of 6.8 °F per century.
  • The summary's authors ran 40 different climate models for Dinosaur and examined the results relative to the baseline period, which was measured from 1979 to 2012 to avoid statistical errors. Realtive to the baseline, all models projected signficant warming by 2050.
  • The models projected an increase in average annual temperature ranging from 2.5 °F to 8.5 °F by 2050. Projected changes in precipitation were less clear. Some models projected a 4.7% decrease in precipitation, while others projected a 28.3% increase.
 

Dinosaur's Climate Future

While it's impossible to precisely predict future greenhouse gas emissions and how our climate will respond to them, we can look at what's happening now to make educated guesses about how the climate could change going forward. This is why the authors of Dinosaur's Climate Futures Summary ran 40 different climate models — to account for a variety of possibilities. The models used observed climate data from 1979 to 2012 to set Dinosaur's climate baseline. The authors then compared climate projections from the 40 models against this baseline to get an understanding of how different climate scenarios could unfold at the park through 2050. In the end, they identified 2 different "climate futures" for Dinosaur that are both plausible: a "Warm Wet" future, and a "Hot Dry" future, which we'll examine below. It's important to remember that these are projections, not predictions. However, considering both of these very different climate possibilities puts park managers in the best position to prepare for a variety of plausible outcomes.
 
A graph showing annual historical temperatures from Dinosaur measured from 1979-2022 compared with projected future temperatures under warm wet and hot dry conditions.
This graph compares observed average annual temperatures from 1979 to 2022 (in gray) with future projections under two different climate scenarios. The red line shows projected temps from 2023 to 2099 if Dinosaur faces a hot/dry climate future. The blue line shows the same under a warm/wet future.

NPS Climate Change Response Program

Temperatures

All 40 climate models predicted warmer temperatures for Dinosaur going forward. The Warm Wet future showed considerable warming, with temps rising 3.8 °F by 2050. The Hot Dry future was more extreme, showing an increase of 6.6 °F by 2050. Both of these projections exceed anything Dinosaur has experienced in recent history, but they're consistent with temperature increases already being observed at the park as a result of climate change.

Precipitation

Precipitation is expected to increase overall, but is highly variable. Both climate futures project drier and wetter years through 2050 when compared to the 1979-2012 baseline. This means that very dry years could still occur, despite an increasing trend in precipitation overall.The Warm Wet climate future projects +2 inches in increased annual rainfall, and the Hot Dry climate future projects +0.6 inches. Very dry intervals and warming can lead to drought conditions that affect river levels, water availability, ecosystem health, and recreation. Wet years can lead to flooding that impacts water quality, infrastructure, and transportation routes.
 

Extreme Events

Extreme weather events are another byproduct of climate change. In statistics, if you score in the 99th percentile on a test, it means you did better than 99% of all other test takers. At Dinosaur, the historic 99th percentile for temperature is 94.4 °F (34.7 °C). This doesn't mean it was the hottest temp on record. It means that the days that scored 94.4 °F on the thermometer were hotter than 99% of all other days between 1979 and 2012. According to the models, the Warm Wet climate future projects an additional +16 days per year where temperatures exceed 94.4 °F. The Hot Dry climate future projects an additional +34.5 days per year exceeding 94.4 °F.

With precipitation, the 99th percentile at Dinosaur historically is 0.6 inches in 24 hours. This means that the days we had 0.6 inches in the rain tube were wetter than 99% of all other days between 1979 and 2012. The record for precipitation in that same period was 1.5 inches in 24 hours. Both climate futures project slightly increased precipitation extremes. Between 2035 and 2065, the Warm Wet future projects 1.9 inches as the largest precipitation event. The Hot Dry scenario projects 1.6 inches. This is consistent with the fact that climate change is projected to lead to more intense extremes in precipitation.
 

Seeing the Effects

The global climate is changing, and National Park sites aren't immune. Today, about 76% of parks are experiencing earlier springtime conditions than they did historically. This has direct impacts on the life cycles of plants and animals that visitors come to see. It also impacts the timing of park operations and events that visitors rely on and enjoy. Human-caused climate change has increased heatwaves and altered the density and distribution of vegetation, creating the perfect conditions for more extreme wildfires. In the western U.S., the area burned by wildfires has more than doubled above natural levels since 1984. In the parks, increased wildfire risk means buildings, cultural landscapes, and infrastructure are vulnerable to burning. Wildfire can also endanger human life and have serious impacts on air quality, as well as leave a lasting physical mark on the landscape. According to climate change projections, areas like Dinosaur National Monument are at particular risk for burning due to their location. Visitors often come to the parks with certain activities in mind, like hiking, snowshoeing, wildlife watching, and taking family photos in front of iconic scenery. As it stands, the effects of human-caused climate change could have tremendous impacts on park visitation, tourism, recreational opportunities, and the very appearance of the parks themselves if current climate trends are allowed to continue.
 

More Climate Resources

The National Park Service has numerous resources available to help you learn more about modern climate change. Use the links provided below to explore common questions, learn how climage change is impacting the parks, discover what we're doing about it, and learn what you can do.
 
A group of students surrounds a ranger doing a climate program at North Cascades National Park.
Common Climate Questions

Despite abundant scientific evidence, the media often portrays climate change as a controversial issue. Explore some popular questions.

A closeup photo of bleached clubtip finger corals in the ocean at Biscayne National Park.
Park-Specific Climate Impacts

Climate change has wide-reaching effects across the National Park System. These living laboratories help us study its effects.

A ranger gestures over solar panels installed at Glacier National Park.
NPS Climate Change Response Program

The National Park Service Climate Change Response Program advances efforts to address the effects of climate change across the Park System.

 

Last updated: January 19, 2025

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Dinosaur, CO 81610

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